By Roving Reporters
Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s back-to-back budget presentations — the ₦655.23bn “Budget of Recovery” (2025) and the ₦492.8bn “Budget of Economic Consolidation” (2026) — reveal more than annual financial plans.
Together, they expose the economic anxieties, political recalculations, and strategic survival instincts shaping Ondo State’s direction.
And the numbers tell a deeper story than the speeches.
FROM EXPANSION TO RETREAT — A GOVERNMENT TEACHING ITSELF A LESSON
In 2025, Aiyedatiwa entered the Assembly with a massive ₦655.23bn proposal — a clear attempt to stamp authority after months of political instability.
Capital expenditure dominated at 62.01%, with infrastructure alone gulping ₦238.57bn, the largest sectoral allocation.
But by late 2025, hard reality struck.
The Governor publicly admitted that the 2025 budget had to be revised downward because:
donor funds never arrived,
inflation wiped out procurement budgets,
revenue performance lagged,
and federal allocations lost value after subsidy removal.
This triggered the 2026 climb-down budget: ₦492.8bn, almost ₦163bn smaller than the 2025 ambition.
This shift — from mega-spending to cautious consolidation — is the biggest unspoken message of Aiyedatiwa’s presentations.
THE POLITICS UNDERNEATH THE NUMBERS
Every budget carries a political undertone, but these two are loaded.
1. The 2025 Budget of Recovery was a statement of power.
Just months after securing legitimacy at the polls, the Governor needed to:
prove stability,
project capacity,
and signal continuity after Akeredolu’s era.
Large infrastructure allocations were meant to communicate boldness.
2. The 2026 Budget of Consolidation is a reality check.
With federal revenue shrinking, VAT sharing formula changing, and inflation punishing state projects, Aiyedatiwa had to:
cut expectations,
restrategize spending,
and avoid the embarrassment of another mid-year budget failure.
INFRASTRUCTURE STILL THE BIG BET — BUT CAN THE STATE AFFORD IT?
Across both budgets:
2025: Infrastructure got ₦238.57bn (36.40%)
2026: Capital spending still takes 57.22% — the highest in years
Aiyedatiwa is betting on roads, rural access, urban renewal, and electricity reforms like:
O’Datiwa electricity meter rollout
Independent distribution licensing
BEDC restructuring within Ondo
Infrastructure remains the administration’s signature.
But the risk is obvious: revenue may never catch up with ambition.
HUMAN CAPITAL — THE LESS LOUD BUT MORE IMPORTANT STORY
Beyond the political noise, both budgets carry strong human-capital commitments:
2,100 teachers employed
WAEC/NABTEB support restored
102 PHCs upgraded
Digital innovation hubs expanded
School shuttle revived
Agriculture prioritised (₦56bn in 2025)
Health (₦46bn in 2025)
Education (₦77bn in 2025)
Unlike many states, Ondo is not cutting social spending — a major plus.
THE HARD ECONOMIC HEADACHES THAT STILL LINGER
Both budgets highlight several unresolved threats:
1. VAT consumption formula – Ondo loses naturally.
Being largely civil-service and rural-driven, the state consumes less than Lagos, Abuja or Rivers.
This means smaller VAT returns, regardless of effort.
2. Inflation is destroying capital projects.
The 2025 budget performance showed capital execution dropping to ₦49.957bn by Q3 — way below targets.
3. IGR remains too weak for aggressive capital spending.
Ondo relies heavily on FAAC and federal shocks hit the state immediately.
These realities explain the “retreat” in the 2026 figures.
THE REAL QUESTION FOR 2026: CAN CONSOLIDATION DELIVER GROWTH?
The shift from ₦655bn Recovery to ₦492bn Consolidation suggests a government choosing:
caution over politics,
realism over noise,
and sustainability over showmanship.
But consolidation comes with pressure:
Contractors want payment.
Labour unions want wage review.
Rural roads need funding.
Electricity reforms must deliver results.
Communities are battling inflation.
Without careful execution, 2026 risks becoming a year of maintenance, not progress.
BOTTOM LINE
Aiyedatiwa’s two budgets reflect a government moving from:
→ Ambition (2025)
→ Adjustment (2026)
Ondo is entering a year where discipline will matter more than declarations, and where the government’s ability to match big plans with stable revenue will determine whether Ondo experiences recovery — or slips into controlled stagnation.
